The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. Should they do enable you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such 888b pub , however, needed that you have an opinion privately or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win for those who have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Assuming you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because more and more are realizing that these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.